000
AXNT20 KNHC 232351
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Apr 24 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 11N16W and
extends to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 03S43W.
Strong convection is emerging off the coast of Liberia and Cote
d'Ivoire, north of 02N and east of 11W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is occurring from 03S to 04N between 15W and 35W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Ridging extends over the Gulf of America, supporting moderate to
locally fresh SE winds over the central and western Gulf, with
gentle to moderate SE winds in the eastern basin. Locally fresh E
to NE winds are noted offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula, just to
the north of a trough axis extending through the peninsula. Seas
of 4 to 6 ft prevail west of 90W, with 2 to 5 ft seas to the
east, including through the Florida Straits.
For the forecast, high pressure ridging just NE of the Gulf will
bring mainly gentle SE winds and relatively tranquil marine
conditions to the NE half of the basin into the weekend. The
southern and western Gulf will experience moderate to fresh E to
SE winds during this same period, locally pulsing to strong off
the NW Yucatan Peninsula each night through Fri night as a diurnal
trough affects the waters. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over the NW Gulf should weaken and diminish this
evening.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Locally fresh NE winds are occurring through the Windward Passage,
as well as offshore of northwestern Colombia, as the result of a
pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and a 1010 mb
low over northwestern Colombia. Seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted in the
south-central Caribbean in association with these winds. Two
troughs are noted in the eastern Caribbean; the first extends from
30N58W southwestward through the Leeward Islands, and the second
that extends from 18N58W through the Windward Islands. Mainly
gentle to moderate winds are noted surrounding these features east
of 70W, and associated seas range from 2 to 3 ft. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate trade winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail
across the rest of the basin.
For the forecast, high pressure ridging north of the basin will
support pulsing fresh NE winds in the Windward Passage, south of
Cuba, and offshore Colombia at night for the next couple of
nights. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will
prevail elsewhere through the weekend. Scattered showers are
possible over the eastern Caribbean during the next couple of days
to the east of a trough over the NE basin.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A surface trough extends from 30N58W southwestward through the
Leeward Islands, while ridging extends from a 1028 mb high
centered north of the area. The pressure gradient between these
features is supporting fresh to locally strong E to SE winds east
of 60W to 50W, with fresh to locally strong NE winds occurring
from 60W to 70W, generally north of 20N. Rough seas of 8 to 11
prevail in this region from 23N, northward, between 50W and 70W.
Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring around
this trough. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh NE winds
continue over the Bahamas, Greater Antilles, and Straits of
Florida. Moderate or lighter winds are elsewhere west of the
surface trough. To the east of the surface trough, widespread
moderate to fresh trade winds dominate those waters with seas of 5
to 8 ft, with the exception of east of 20W and north of 10N where
fresh to strong NE winds are present.
For the forecast west of 55W, fresh NE winds will continue on the
NW side of the aforementioned trough through Fri as the trough
remains nearly stationary. Winds should should diminish by the
weekend as the pressure gradient relaxes. Looking ahead, a cold
front may move southward, between Florida and 65W, late Sunday
into Monday followed by moderate to fresh N to NE winds.
$$
ADAMS
