222
AXPZ20 KNHC 252116
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Apr 25 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 08N85W to 08.5N96W to
06N114W. The ITCZ continues from 06N114W to beyond 04.5N140W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 01N to 08N
east of 87W, and from 03N to 07.5N between 88W and 99W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 08N
between 102W and 139W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 01.5S to 03S between 95.5W and 100W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Satellite scatterometer data from around midday showed gentle to
moderate N-NW winds the Baja California near and offshore waters,
becoming northerly across the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas across
the Baja waters are 4 to 6 ft in mixed SW and NW swell. Light to
gentle winds are elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico from
the Revillagigedo Islands to Tehuantepec, where seas are 4 to 5
ft. Gentle to moderate cyclonic winds are in the northern Gulf of
California, with light to gentle winds elsewhere in the Gulf.
Seas inside the Gulf are 2 to 4 ft north portions, 4 to 5 ft in
SW swell across the entrance, and 3 ft or less elsewhere.
For the forecast, Pacific high pressure centered well NW of the area
along 146W will drift slowly eastward through the weekend. A weak
cold front will move into the Baja Norte waters Sat and dissipate
across the central Baja waters Sun, allowing the high pressure
to build modestly across the Baja waters through Mon. Moderate
NW winds across the Baja waters early this afternoon will
increase to fresh winds late Sat through late Mon. Fresh to
strong SW winds will pulse in the northern Gulf of California
tonight and Sat night. N winds in the central Gulf of
Tehuantepec will pulse fresh to occasional strong at night
through this weekend.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Satellite scatterometer data from around midday showed moderate
to locally fresh E gap winds across the Papagayo region extending
offshore to near 120 nm, and moderate N winds across the Gulf of
Panama to 05N. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere, except
for moderate southerly winds between the Galapagos Islands and
southern Colombia fueling active convection there. Seas are in
the 5-6 ft range in new S-SW swell, except 6 to 8 ft SW through
SE of the Galapagos Islands. Scattered moderate thunderstorms are
active within 75 nm of the coast of Guatemala, while scattered
moderate to strong thunderstorms prevail across the near and
offshore waters of western Panama and Costa Rica and extend south
and southeast to coastal Colombia.
For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure extending southwestward
across the eastern Gulf of America and NW Caribbean will persist
into early next week to maintain moderate gap wind flow across
the regional Pacific waters. Moderate to fresh E winds will
pulse across the Papagayo region each night and morning into
next week. In the Gulf of Panama, moderate to locally fresh winds
will pulse nightly into Sat, with generally moderate winds
expected thereafter. New cross equatorial S-SW swell is entering
the regional waters today and will peak late Sat through Sun.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....
High pressure dominates the waters N of 10N, centered on a 1030
mb high near 39N146W. An associated broad ridge extends S and SE
between 105W and 160W. The pressure gradient between this ridge
and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting
moderate to fresh NE trade winds N of the ITCZ to near 22N W of
125W. Seas over these waters are in the 6-9 ft range. Gentle to
moderate N to NE winds, and seas of 5-6 ft, prevail S of the
high center, N of 21N and W of 120W. Gentle winds, and seas of
5-6 ft are elsewhere over the discussion waters.
For the forecast, the high center NW of the area will drift
slowly eastward through the weekend, and reach along 135W on Mon.
This is expected to yield a slight increase in winds across the
trade wind zone Sat through Mon, with rough seas developing
there. Cross equatorial S swell will propagate into the southern
waters today through the weekend, raising seas to 8-9 ft to the
south of 10N between 100W and 120W through late Sat before seas
slowly subside through Sun. Locally fresh N to NW winds and rough
seas will develop tonight north of 27N behind a cold front
sweeping across the northern waters, and reaching 120W by midday
Sat.
$$
Stripling
