477
AXPZ20 KNHC 292028
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Apr 29 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1930 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 10N84W to 06.5N98W to
07N113W to 06.5N128W. The ITCZ continues from 06.5N128W to
beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 01.5N to 09.5N east of 88W, from 04N to 08N between
88W and 111W, and from 05N to 11.5N between 111W and 130W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Midday satellite scatterometer data showed moderate to locally fresh
N-NW winds across the Baja California waters N of Cabo San
Lucas, then moderate winds extending southward to the
Revillagigedo Islands. Seas across these waters from Cabo San
Lazaro northward are 6 to 8 ft in merging NW and S swell, and 6
to 7 ft southward. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere across
the open waters off Mexico to Puerto Angel, with moderate NE
winds spilling out of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas across these
waters are 5 to 7 ft in fading S to SW swell, except to 8 ft
offshore of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate winds are noted in
the Gulf of California where seas are 3 ft or less, except to 5
ft near the entrance of the Gulf. Shower and thunderstorm
activity occurring across the Tehuantepec area has shifted
westward across the Oaxaca waters and become isolated.
For the forecast, a broad ridge of high pressure extending
southeastward across the Baja waters will weaken slightly across
the region tonight through the remainder of the week, leading to
a gradual decrease in winds and seas across the Baja waters.
W to SW winds are expected to develop across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec tonight into the upcoming weekend. Moderate to fresh
W to SW gap winds will develop across the northern Gulf of
California Wed and Thu nights. Looking ahead, a cold front will
move into the Baja Norte waters Sat night and reach the central
Baja waters Sun, accompanied by a significant increase in winds
and seas.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Midday satellite scatterometer data showed moderate to fresh
easterly gap wind flow continuing across the Papagayo region to
northern Nicaragua and extending to 90W, with fresh winds
offshore of the Gulf of Papagayo. Seas across this area are 5 to
7 ft in fading SW swell. Moderate northerly winds were noted
across the Gulf of Panama extending southward to 05.5N. Elsewhere,
light to gentle winds prevail with seas in the 5-6 ft range in
subsiding S to SW swell. Recent satellite altimeter data showed
seas S of the Galapagos continuing at 7 to 8 ft in S swell. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms remain active across the waters north
of 01.5N and east of 88W, and into the coasts of Costa Rica and
Panama.
For the forecast, high pressure will remain N of the area to
maintain the current pattern of moderate to fresh winds pulsing
at night across the Papagayo region through early Fri, before
winds diminish into the upcoming weekend. Moderate northerly
winds across the Gulf of Panama will diminish slightly Wed
through Thu, then become light and variable into the upcoming
weekend.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....
A broad ridge dominates the regional Pacific waters N of 10N
and W of 110W, centered on a 1031 mb high near 36N135W. The
pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure in the
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to locally strong NE
trade winds N of the ITCZ to 22N and W of 117W. Seas over these
waters are in the 7-10 ft range in merging S and NE swell.
Moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic winds dominate the
remaining waters N of the ITCZ and W of 110W, with seas of 6 to
8 ft in new N to NE swell. S of the ITCZ/monsoon trough, light
to gentle winds and seas of 5-6 ft in subsiding S-SW swell
prevail. Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain active near
the ITCZ/monsoon trough from 05N to 11.5N between 111W and 130W.
For the forecast, the broad high pressure ridge currently
dominating the region W of 110W will remain in place through
early Wed, then begin to weaken and shift SE, ahead of an
approaching frontal system. Little change in winds and wave
heights are expected N of the ITCZ through early Wed, before a
decreasing trend ensues from the middle to end of the week. A new
cold front will enter the NW waters Fri evening, and move E-SE
and reach from 30N121W to 26N140W by Sat evening. Expect fresh to
locally strong N to NE winds and seas building 8 to 10 ft behind
the front.
$$
Stripling
