000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100136
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Apr 10 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0120 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gale-force northerly gap winds
will return later this evening in the Tehunatepec region as high
pressure continue to settle into eastern Mexico. Winds will
subside slightly late Thu before a strong high pressure builds
southward into eastern Mexico Thu night, inducing an extended
period of gale-force gap winds, as well as very rough seas, that
will continue into Sun. Seas may peak to around 16 ft again by
early Sat. As the responsible high pressure in Mexico weakens
and moves east for the start of next week, conditions will
improve. Fresh to strong winds will then pulse there Sun
afternoon and night. Please refer to the the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from near the border of Colombia and
Panama at 07.5N78W to 06.5N81W to 10N87W. The ITCZ extends from
01S110W to 00N126W. Another surface trough extends from 06N123w
to 02S129W. Another ITCZ segment is from 04N128W to 00N140W.
Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 09N
between 81W and 91W, from 00N to 04N between 96W and 100W, from
06N to 11N between 103W and 110W, from 06N to 11N between 103W
and 111W, from 03N to 08N between 113W and 121W, and from 01N to
05N between 132W and 137W. Similar convection is from 01S to
03.4S between 105W and 109W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section for information on a gale
warning in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
High pressure dominating the waters is leading to moderate or
weaker winds throughout the region. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in
primarily NW swell N of 18N, and primarily SW swell S of 18N,
with seas locally to 8 ft near and southwest of the Revillagigedo
Islands. In the Gulf of California, seas are 3 ft or less.
For the forecast, winds will remain moderate or weaker through
Fri night. Areas of fresh winds may develop in association with a
cold front this weekend offshore Baja California Norte and in
the northern Gulf of California. Southerly swell will build wave
heights to rough offshore SW Mexico tonight through Thu night.
Large NW swell may impact the Baja California waters this
weekend, subsiding early next week.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong NE winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate to
fresh N to NE winds are in the Gulf of Panama. Winds are moderate
or weaker elsewhere. Seas are 6 to 9 ft over the far outer
waters of western Guatemala due to ongoing gale-force Gulf of
Tehuantepec gap winds. Elsewhere, seas are 4 to 7 ft, except
building to around 8 ft in SW swell from Ecuador to the Galapagos
Islands, highest SW of the Galapagos.
For the forecast, high pressure building southward into the
western Caribbean will lead to pulsing fresh to strong NE to E
gap winds in the Papagayo region into the weekend. Locally fresh
winds will pulse during this time in the Gulf of Panama,
otherwise the remainder of the waters will have moderate or
weaker winds. Large NW swell from Gulf of Tehuantepec gales will
propagate into the waters offshore Guatemala through the weekend.
SW swell will cause seas to build through the end of the the
week, reaching rough category for most of the waters, except for
the lee of the Galapagos Islands. As the swell decays this
weekend, seas are forecast to subside into early next week.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....
High pressure is analyzed just north of 30N west-southwest of the
California Channel Islands. A cold front is just west of the
area, approaching 30N140W. Moderate trades are found north of
03N. Winds are mainly gentle across the remainder of the open
waters. Seas are 8 to 10 ft in mainly SW swell south of 20N, and
6 to 8 ft in mainly NW swell to the north.
For the forecast, the extensive swell over the waters south of
20N will gradually decay from west to east through the end of
the week. A prolonged Gulf of Tehunatepec gale will send NE swell
well southwest of the source region toward the central waters
mixing with the aforementioned SW swell. A cold front may move
just southeast of 30N140W overnight into Thu with moderate to
fresh winds and building NW swell behind it. That swell will
build wave heights to 7 to 10 ft, mainly north of 23N or so
through the upcoming weekend. Winds may freshen west of 130W
beginning Fri night and into the upcoming weekend as high
pressure builds across the region in the wake of the front.
$$
Lewitsky
