Contact:  Robert Chartuk              NOAA 00-R255
         (516) 244-0166               FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
         robert.chartuk@noaa.gov      August 24, 2000

NORTHEAST SUMMER INCREASES HURRICANE FLOOD THREAT

With much of southern New York and northeast Pennsylvania still soggy from an unusually wet summer, the National Weather Service is wary of the increased threat of flooding from hurricanes and tropical storms.

"The earth's ability to absorb heavy rain has certainly been limited by the unusually wet summer we've had so far here in the northeast," said Sol Summer, hydrology chief for the NWS Eastern Region. "The wet conditions would make flooding from a hurricane or tropical storm that much worse."

According to the hydrologist, the ability of soil to absorb additional moisture, and the higher levels of rivers, lakes, and streams, are key factors in the increased flood potential this hurricane season. Cooler temperatures and increased cloud cover are also affecting local conditions as evaporation has been slowed and more water is staying on the ground.

"Last year, we were looking at drought conditions and many areas were actually hoping for a dose of tropical moisture," the hydrologist explained. "This year, there is so much water around, it would be difficult to absorb a heavy rain which could result in flash floods and river floods," Summer said.

"And keep in mind, extensive flooding from Hurricane Floyd last year occurred when the region was experiencing drought conditions," Summer added. "If a storm similar to Hurricane Floyd were to make landfall now, you would see not only localized flooding and flash flooding, but many of the main stem rivers could overflow their banks as well."

Much of the northeast from New England south through southern New York, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey have above average soil moisture, while parts of Maryland, Delaware, Virginia and West Virginia are slightly wetter than normal. These areas are in stark contrast to the south, the west, and parts of the midwestern U.S. which are still grappling with abnormally dry conditions, the Weather Service said.

Example's of the wet conditions can be found throughout the northeast: New Jersey's Lake Hopatcong, for instance, was at its highest level since record keeping began 114 years ago breaking the previous record set during Hurricane Diane in 1955.

The Delaware River at Trenton, N.J. is flowing at a rate 250 percent above normal for this time of the year and the Passaic River at Little Falls, N.J. is at 90 percent higher than normal. Streamflow at Montague, N.Y. on the upper Delaware River is 237 percent of normal and the Susquehanna River is 169 percent of normal at Wilkes-Barre, Pa.

More telling is the state of the region's water supply, noted George McKillop, NWS Service Hydrologist for New York and New Jersey. The northeast New Jersey reservoir system is holding an estimated 76 billion gallons of water, which is about 94 percent of capacity. "The reservoir system is holding about 20.5 billion gallons, or 20 percent, more than last year right before Hurricane Floyd hit," McKillop noted. The New York City reservoir system is at 96 percent of capacity, which is 12 percent above normal for this time of the year.

"The lingering effects of La Nina are the culprit in this situation," said Ants Leetmaa, director of the Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Md. "La Nina first brought persistent wet and cool weather conditions to the Northeast leading to soggy conditions and now is expected to possibly bring enhanced rainfall through an above normal tropical storm outlook for this hurricane season."

The Weather Service cautioned that freshwater flooding from tropical rain can occur hundreds of miles inland and can be as dangerous as the storm surge normally associated with hurricanes as they come ashore.

"With flooding one of the leading causes of weather related deaths in the United States, coastal residents and those living well inland should always be wary of rising waters," Summer said. "Particular caution should be taken while driving in flooded areas since more than half of the country's flood related deaths take place in vehicles."

National Weather Service information on hurricane development, flood threats, and weather forecasts and warnings can be obtained through a number of sources including NOAA Weather Radio and the Internet at http://www.nws.noaa.gov.