436 
AXPZ20 KNHC 270251
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Dec 27 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant NW swell: The previous sets of large NW swell have
subsided below 12 ft across most of the discussion waters.
Currently, seas around 12 ft cover a small area, mainly N of 29N
between 118W and 122W. A new set of large NW swell will enter 
the NW waters Friday, which will bring seas of 12 ft or greater 
across the waters mainly north of 18N Friday into the upcoming 
weekend. 

Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by 
the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 06N105W. The ITCZ 
extends from 06N105W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 06N to 08N and E of 85W, and from 04N 
to 09N between 115W and 131W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features Section above for details on
the significant NW swell that will impact the waters offshore 
Baja California through the remainder of the week and into the 
upcoming weekend.

A ridge extends from a 1028 mb high pressure centered near 
28N137W to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient in
the area is supporting fresh to strong NW-N winds well offshore 
Baja California from Punta Eugenia northward, with moderate to 
fresh winds elsewhere offshore Baja California. Gentle to 
moderate winds prevail across the remainder of the open waters 
offshore Mexico. Seas are mainly 8 ft or greater across the 
offshore waters, except 4 to 7 ft from southern Mexico from 
Chiapas and Tehuantepec just southwestward. Seas are 3 ft or less
in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, high pressure west of the area will maintain 
moderate northerly winds pulsing to fresh from Cabo San Lazaro 
northward through early Sat, with gentle to moderate winds across
the remainder of the open waters. Fresh to strong N winds may 
briefly pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun evening. Several 
rounds of significant NW swell will impact most waters through 
the next several days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate NE gap winds prevail in the Papagayo region, where seas
are in the 4 to 6 ft range. Light to gentle winds prevail 
elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, along with seas of 4 to 7 
ft in NW swell, and to 8 ft well offshore Guatemala. South of 
the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate S to SW winds prevail, 
along with seas of 4 to 7 ft in NW swell.

For the forecast, moderate gap winds will pulse in the Papagayo 
region through the next several days. Moderate to fresh winds 
will prevail south of the monsoon trough through at least the end
of the week, with gentle to moderate winds across the remainder 
of the area. Seas will build slightly through the end of the week
as NW swell moves into the regional waters, decaying into the 
upcoming weekend. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section above for details about
NW swells which will impact the waters N of 18N Friday into the 
weekend.

A 1028 mb high is centered near 28N137W. Light to gentle 
anticyclonic winds are in the vicinity of the high center. 
Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ and west 
of 115W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the remainder 
of the open waters, including south of the ITCZ and monsoon 
trough. Aside from the large swell discussed above, seas are 
mainly in the 6 to 8 ft range east of 90W.

For the forecast, other than the large NW swell discussed in the
Special Features section, little change in winds are forecast 
over the next several days. Meanwhile, seas of 8 ft or greater 
will cover most of the waters west of roughly 90W into the end of
the week before subsiding.

$$
ERA