355 
AXPZ20 KNHC 130945
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Mar 13 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Swell Event: A cold front is moving through the 
north-central and northwest sections of the area. A large set of
significant northwest swell follows the front. This swell will
move through waters north of 24N west of 122W during today,
and through the waters north of 25N between Baja California 
Norte and 135W Thu night into early Fri. The swell is generating 
seas in the range of 12 to 15 ft with period of 13-15 seconds 
over the northwest part of the discussion area. Conditions will 
slowly abate during Fri and Sat as the swell set shifts east and 
south. Peak seas on Sat are forecast to be at 11 ft between 
southern Baja California and the Revillagigedo Islands.
 
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure in northwest 
Colombia, southwestward to south of Panama near 07N78W to 
08N86W and to 04N91W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 01N100W
to 01N120W to 01N130W and to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is seen from 01N to 03.4S between 95W and 104W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features Section for details on the Significant 
Swell event impacting the waters offshore of Baja California.

A broad ridge stretches east-southeastward from well west of the
forecast waters to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The gradient 
between the ridge and a trough over Baja California is allowing 
for moderate north winds to exist over the waters near the 
southern tip of California. These winds reach south to near 15N 
between 107W and 114W as depicted in an overnight ASCAT 
satellite data pass. Seas of 8 to 9 ft in residual northwest to 
north swell are found over these waters reaching north to 
offshore Baja California Sur. Fresh to strong northwest to north 
winds are along and just offshore Cabo Corrientes along with 
seas of 6 to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh north to northeast winds 
are south of the ridge from 06N to 15N between 107W and 115W 
along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Fresh south to southwest winds are 
in the northern Gulf of California along with seas of 3 to 5 ft. 
Elsewhere, mostly gentle north to northeast winds and seas of 4 
to 6 ft remain, except for light to gentle winds west to 
northwest winds north of Cabo San Lucas, where seas are 6 to 8 
ft due to residual northwest swell.

For the forecast, a cold front will sweep across the northern 
and central Baja California waters this afternoon and the across 
the southern Baja California waters tonight into early on Fri. It
will be preceded by fresh southwest winds, and followed by fresh
to locally strong northwest winds today. Fresh to strong 
southwest winds are ahead of the front in the northern Gulf of 
California. As the front crosses the Gulf of California tonight, 
strong to near gale-force west to northwest winds can be expected
behind it in the northern Gulf. The fresh to strong southwest 
winds in the northern Gulf of California expected to briefly 
increase to strong to near gale tonight. Northwest swell 
following the cold front will reinforce rough seas offshore of 
Baja California Norte today. The rough seas will then spread 
through all waters offshore of the peninsula through Fri.
Peak seas of 12 to 14 ft are anticipated north of 27N and west 
of 117W This evening through Fri. Elsewhere, pulsing moderate to 
locally fresh northwest to north winds will continue offshore 
Cabo Corrientes to the waters near the southern tip of Baja 
California through Fri, before more widespread fresh to locally 
strong winds develop Fri afternoon as the aforementioned cold 
front moves southeastward through the region. Looking ahead, gale
force winds will be possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun 
night into early next week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh northeast to east winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo. Seas
with these winds are 4 to 6 ft. Fresh north to northeast winds 
are in the Gulf of Panama with also with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Gentle
to locally moderate northeast to east winds along with seas of
3 to 5 ft due to long-period south to southwest continue across
the remainder of the region.

satellite imagery showers scattered showers and thunderstorms
over the waters west of Ecuador. This activity reached beyond 
750 nm to the vicinity of the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, the fresh northeast to east winds in the Gulf
of Papagayo will diminish to moderate speeds this afternoon. The 
fresh north to northeast winds in the Gulf of Panama will 
diminish to gentle speeds also this afternoon. Otherwise, gentle
to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail 
across the waters offshore of Central and South America through 
this weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

See the Special Features Section for details on the Significant 
Swell Event that is currently impacting the waters north of 27N 
west of 126W.

A cold front that is presently moving through the northwest and 
north-central waters is analyzed at 06Z from near 30N122W to 
24N130W and to near 21N140W. A trough is just to the northwest of
the front north of 30N while a broad ridge is present elsewhere.
Fresh to strong northwest winds are behind the front. Outside 
the significant swell as described above under Special Features, 
seas of 8 to 12 ft are elsewhere north of the front to 27N. The 
gradient between the ridge and relatively lower pressure found 
in the subtropical region is allowing for mostly fresh trade 
winds to be confined from 04N to 17N west of 120W. Strong trade 
winds are in the far western waters from 07N to 17N west of 
136W. Seas within this area are 8 to 9 ft due to long- period 
northwest to north swell combining with wind generated waves.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will quickly
shift eastward toward Baja California this afternoon and tonight,
followed by fresh to strong northwest to north winds. In
addition to the seas of 8 to 9 ft already mentioned with the
trade winds over the western part of the area, seas elsewhere 
in excess of 8 ft are expected on Fri to be northwest of a line 
from 26N113W to 17N124W. The mostly fresh trade winds west of 
120W will change little through tonight, then expand eastward to 
near 110W Fri night and change little through Sun. A tightening 
pressure gradient as a result of strong high pressure that 
builds over the region behind another cold front late on Sun 
will result in the trade winds over the central and western 
waters to become more prominent in the fresh to strong speeds 
from roughly 04N to 21N west of 122W, with the winds at strong 
speeds generally being west of 110W through this weekend, then 
with locally strong trade winds possible west of about 135W Thu 
through Fri. 

$$
Aguirre