000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131605
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Mar 13 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Swell Event: A cold front moving through the 
northern waters extends from 30N119W to 21N133W, and rough seas 
in excess of 8 ft are occurring to the north and west of the 
front. Peak seas of 12 to 15 ft are noted north of 24N and west 
of 123W this morning. Very rough seas in excess of 12 ft will 
spread to the south and east through Fri morning, impacting areas
north of 23N between 116W and 140W. Seas are expected to subside
below 12 ft by late Fri morning or early afternoon, with seas 
slowly subsiding below 8 ft from west to east this weekend. 
 
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure in northwest 
Colombia southwestward to 08N83W to 01N102W. The ITCZ continues
from 01N102W to beyond 05S140W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 120 NM of the monsoon trough, and south of 02N
between 128W and 140W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features Section for details on the Significant 
Swell event impacting the waters offshore of Baja California.

A cold front extends across the waters north of Baja California 
Norte from 30N119W to 21N133W, and moderate to fresh SW winds are
occurring ahead of the front, with fresh to strong NW winds and 
rough seas of 8 to 9 ft behind the front. Farther east, troughing
extends over northwestern Mexico, and the pressure gradient 
between this trough and the cold front is supporting fresh to 
strong winds in the far northern Gulf of California. Elsewhere, a
1012 mb low has been analyzed offshore of Colima near 19N104W, 
and moderate to locally fresh N to NW winds and locally rough 
seas to 8 ft are noted west to northwest of the low, including 
near Cabo San Lucas and in the southern Gulf of California. 
Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail
offshore of southwestern Mexico. 

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will progress 
southeastward through the Baja California waters and the Gulf of 
California through late Fri. Fresh SW winds will occur ahead of 
the front offshore of Baja California Norte, with fresh to strong
NW winds likely behind the front. In the northern Gulf of 
California, fresh to strong winds are likely ahead of the front 
into this evening, with strong to near-gale force NW winds in the
wake of the front through Fri morning. Rough seas associated 
with the cold front will propagate southeastward into this 
weekend, impacting the waters offshore of all of Baja California 
by late Fri night, and offshore of southwestern Mexico by early 
Sat. Peak seas of 12 to 13 ft will impact areas north of Punta 
Eugenia this evening through Fri morning. Elsewhere, pulsing 
moderate to locally fresh N to NW winds will continue offshore 
Cabo Corrientes to offshore of Baja California Sur through 
tonight, before more widespread fresh to locally strong winds 
develop Fri morning as the cold front moves southeastward. 
Widespread moderate to fresh N to NW winds are expected across 
the aforementioned areas through Sat, with pulsing fresh winds 
continuing in the Gulf of California through Sun. Looking ahead, 
gale force winds will be possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun 
night into early next week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft 
are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo. Farther east, pulsing 
moderate to locally fresh N winds are found in the Gulf of 
Panama, as observed on recent scatterometer satellite data. 
Otherwise, gentle to locally moderate winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft
in S to SW swell prevail across the remainder of the region. 
Recent satellite imagery depicts scattered moderate convection 
occurring offshore of western Colombia and northwestern Ecuador. 

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh N to E winds in the 
Gulf of Papagayo and Gulf of Panama will diminish this afternoon.
Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas 
will prevail across the waters offshore of Central and South 
America through this weekend. Looking ahead, pulsing fresh to 
locally strong winds look to redevelop in the Gulf of Papagayo 
and Gulf of Panama early next week. Elsewhere, rough seas 
generated by gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehunatepec will 
impact areas well offshore of Guatemala early next week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

See the Special Features Section for details on the Significant 
Swell Event that is currently impacting the waters north of 24N 
west of 123W.

A cold front moving through the northern waters extends from 
30N119W to 21N133W, and fresh to locally strong NW winds are 
occurring in the wake of the front, generally to the east of 
132W. Outside the significant swell as described above under 
Special Features, rough seas associated with the cold front are 
progressing southeastward, with seas in excess of 8 ft noted in 
the wake of the front. Elsewhere, broad ridging covers much of 
the open waters, extending from a 1030 mb high centered near 
30N152W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are occurring along the 
periphery of the ridge, from north of the ITCZ to 20N, generally 
west of 115W. Seas of 8 to 10 ft are noted in this region, with 
the highest seas occurring near the strong winds. Otherwise, 
gentle to locally moderate winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail 
across the remainder of the waters east of 115W. 

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will progress 
southeastward through late Fri, producing fresh to locally strong
NW winds in the wake of the front. Rough seas in excess of 8 ft 
will progress southeastward, impacting areas north of 18N through
late tonight, and north of 15N through late Fri. Very rough seas
in excess of 12 ft will spread to the south and east through Fri
morning, impacting areas north of 23N between 116W and 140W. 
Seas are expected to subside below 12 ft by late Fri morning or 
early afternoon. Farther south, moderate to fresh trade winds 
and rough seas of 8 to 10 ft will prevail from 05N to 20N and 
west of 115W through this weekend as high pressure drifts 
eastward. Locally strong winds and seas to 11 ft will be possible
west of 135W through Fri. Looking ahead, another cold front is 
slated to move into the northwestern waters this weekend, 
producing fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and rough to very
rough seas in the wake of the front north of 25N and west of 
125W through Mon.

$$
ADAMS