Tropical Depression NINE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2003
 
THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DEVELOPED
CONVECTION...BANDING FEATURES...AFTER BEING DEVOID OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOR SEVERAL HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEST WIND FROM A
SHIP SOUTH OF THE CENTER SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A
POORLY-DEFINED CIRCULATION. THEREFORE...IT IS ASSUMED THAT A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS
TO BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND ONLY THE INTERACTION WITH THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA COULD HINDER 
INTENSIFICATION. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS AND THE GFDL
MODEL. AS WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST...THIS RAPID ORGANIZATION TREND CAN
BE EASILY REVERSED AS IT OCCURED LAST NIGHT.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING 295 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WOULD FAVOR A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFDL AND GFS MODELS WHICH BRING WHATEVER SYSTEM IS THERE...OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...JUST TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA IN ABOUT 5 DAYS.  
 
FORECASTER AVILA
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/2100Z 14.7N  66.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     22/0600Z 15.5N  67.8W    30 KT
 24HR VT     22/1800Z 16.5N  70.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     23/0600Z 17.5N  72.0W    50 KT
 48HR VT     23/1800Z 19.0N  74.0W    50 KT
 72HR VT     24/1800Z 21.5N  76.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     25/1800Z 24.0N  78.0W    60 KT
120HR VT     26/1800Z 26.0N  79.0W    60 KT
 
 
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