Hurricane FABIAN

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HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2003
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF FABIAN CONTINUES
TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THERE ARE GOOD CENTRAL AND BANDING
FEATURES...THE OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED AND MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY...AN EYE FEATURE IS BECOMING APPARENT ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 85 KNOTS
BASED ON DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 5.0 AND 4.5 FROM TAFB...SAB AND
KGWC...RESPECTIVELY. THIS MAKES FABIAN A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. FABIAN IS MOVING OVER WARM
WATER AND INTO LOW SHEAR. THEREFORE... ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE LATEST RUNS OF SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.

THERE HAS NOT BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN. A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE ANCHORED FROM THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. THIS
PATTERN WOULD KEEP FABIAN ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO EVEN
WESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. 
THIS PATTERN WOULD FORCE FABIAN TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS
IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE...PRIMARILY THE
GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL. IN THE SHORT RANGE...THE GFS MOVES
FABIAN ON A STRAIGHT WESTWARD TRACK OR EVEN SOUTH OF DUE WEST. THIS
IS NOT LIKELY TO HAPPEN AND IS PROBABLY BECAUSE THE GFS TREATS
FABIAN AS A SHALLOW SYSTEM STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE GFS IS AN EXCELLENT MODEL AND ATTENTION MUST BE PAID
TO THE NEXT RUN.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/1500Z 17.2N  48.6W    85 KT
 12HR VT     31/0000Z 17.5N  50.5W    90 KT
 24HR VT     31/1200Z 18.5N  53.0W    95 KT
 36HR VT     01/0000Z 19.0N  55.5W   100 KT
 48HR VT     01/1200Z 19.5N  57.5W   100 KT
 72HR VT     02/1200Z 20.5N  61.5W   100 KT
 96HR VT     03/1200Z 22.0N  64.0W   100 KT
120HR VT     04/1200Z 25.0N  67.5W   100 KT
 
 
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