Tropical Depression FOURTEEN

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2003
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FOURTEEN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT BASED ON SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT AND 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...
RESPECTIVELY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/03. TD-14 IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AS A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD AND WEAKENS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED NORTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. HOWEVER
...GIVEN THAT THE DEPRESSION IS SO FAR SOUTH...THIS SCENARIO MAY BE
SLOW IN DEVELOPING OR NOT EVEN OCCUR AT ALL. RIGHT NOW...THE COURSE
OF LEAST REGRET IS TO STAY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW...BUT DRY AIR NOTED IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS NOTED INTRUDING FROM THE EAST. ALSO...THIS
SYSTEM HAS HAD PROBLEMS MAINTAINING THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE AND IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL
...WHICH BRINGS THE SYSTEM UP TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/1500Z 11.8N  22.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     09/0000Z 11.9N  22.6W    35 KT
 24HR VT     09/1200Z 12.4N  24.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     10/0000Z 13.3N  25.8W    45 KT
 48HR VT     10/1200Z 14.4N  27.4W    55 KT
 72HR VT     11/1200Z 17.0N  31.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     12/1200Z 20.0N  34.0W    70 KT
120HR VT     13/1200Z 23.5N  36.0W    70 KT
 
 
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