Hurricane NORA

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE OCT 07 2003

NORA HARDLY QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT HAS BEEN DEVOID
OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS.  NIGHTIME SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEAL A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH THE CENTER FAIRLY EASY TO
FIND.  0133 UTC QUIKSCAT AND 0550 UTC ADIOS SCATTEROMETER DATA
DETECTED 25 TO 30 KT MAXIMUM WINDS.  THEREFORE...NORA IS DOWNGRADED
TO A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/3.  ALL THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE
MOVES THE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GUNA AND GUNS
MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS VERY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IF NORA
MOVES AS FORECAST...IT WOULD TRACK OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS. 
HOWEVER...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND STABLE AIR SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
ATTEMPT TO RE-STRENGTHEN.  NORA IS THEREFORE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
WEAKENING AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS. 
THE SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  
  
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/0900Z 20.6N 113.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     07/1800Z 21.1N 112.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     08/0600Z 21.9N 111.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     08/1800Z 23.1N 110.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     09/0600Z 24.7N 109.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     10/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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