Hurricane OLAF

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON OCT 06 2003
 
OLAF IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. WHAT WAS A
CONVECTION-FREE CLOUD SWIRL LATE THIS MORNING HAS REDEVELOPED
STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES. WHILE THE QUIKSCAT PASS AT 12Z
INDICATED THAT WINDS AT THAT TIME WERE ONLY 35 KT...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT BASED ON THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING. CONTINUED RE-DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE UNTIL THE CIRCULATION
ENCOUNTERS THE MEXICAN LAND MASS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. SHOULD OLAF TAKE A PATH TO THE LEFT OF
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND STAY OFFSHORE...IT WOULD ALMOST SURELY
GET STRONGER THAN INDICATED BELOW. HOWEVER...OLAF SHOULD ENCOUNTER
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ONCE IT GETS NORTH OF CABO
CORRIENTES.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/5.  A SMALL MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO WILL ERODE OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...BUT
MIGHT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP OLAF JUST OFFSHORE.  A LARGE CUTOFF
LOW OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IS DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD...AND
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A
BEND IN THE TRACK BACK TO THE RIGHT.  THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT
FOLLOW THE VORTEX WELL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
GFS THROUGH 48 H AND THE MEDIUM BAM THEREAFTER.  THE SHALLOW
CIRCULATION OF WEAKENING NORA IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON THE TRACK OF OLAF.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/2100Z 18.3N 104.5W    45 KT
 12HR VT     07/0600Z 19.0N 104.7W    50 KT
 24HR VT     07/1800Z 20.0N 105.2W    40 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     08/0600Z 21.3N 105.6W    30 KT...OVER WATER
 48HR VT     08/1800Z 23.0N 106.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     09/1800Z 26.5N 106.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     10/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
NNNN