Hurricane HOWARD

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HURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU SEP 02 2004
 
SATELLITE ANIMATION DEPICTS THAT THE CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE EYE
HAVE WARMED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST SSM/I
PASS REVEALED A PARTIAL COLLAPSE OF THE EYE WALL OVER THE NE
QUADRANT. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 127 KT FROM TAFB AND
115 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA.  HOWEVER...THE DATA T-NUMBERS FROM AFWA
AND SAB HAVE DROPPED TO 102 KT INDICATIVE OF THE TEMPORARY WARMING
OF THE CLOUD TOPS. THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 120 KT. BY 24
HOURS...WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AS THE HURRICANE ENCOUNTERS COOLING
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS.  THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...HOWARD SHOULD BE OVER
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WATERS AND WEAKENING RAPIDLY.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS NORTHWESTWARD OR 310 AT 8 KT.  THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH SITUATED NORTH OF HOWARD IS BREAKING DOWN IN RESPONSE TO A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER CALIFORNIA.  THE U.K. MET CONTINUES TO
BE THE ONLY MODEL INDICATING A RECURVE SCENARIO DUE TO THIS TROUGH. 
THE FORECAST IS BASED OFF OF THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE WHICH
CALLS FOR A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A REDUCTION IN
FORWARD SPEED.
 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/2100Z 18.6N 114.3W   120 KT
 12HR VT     03/0600Z 19.4N 115.2W   120 KT
 24HR VT     03/1800Z 20.5N 116.3W   110 KT
 36HR VT     04/0600Z 21.6N 117.1W   100 KT
 48HR VT     04/1800Z 23.0N 117.6W    80 KT
 72HR VT     05/1800Z 25.5N 118.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     06/1800Z 27.0N 119.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     07/1800Z 28.0N 119.5W    25 KT
 
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