Tropical Storm KAY

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TROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE OCT 05 2004
 
THE CENTER IS STILL ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
MAIN MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION...BUT IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
CONVECTION TO YIELD DATA T-NUMBERS OF 3.0...2.5...AND 2.5 FROM
TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA RESPECTIVELY.  THEREFORE THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT AND THE SYSTEM IS BEING NAMED.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE AND
SINCE NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.  IN
FACT...THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGE SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER
IS BECOMING MORE SEPARATED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION.  IF THIS TREND
PERSISTS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IN THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE
REVISED DOWNWARD.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/11.  THERE IS STILL NO CLEAR
EVIDENCE THAT KAY'S MOTION IS BEING INFLUENCED BY A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 600 N MI TO ITS WEST.  THUS FAR...
DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE NOT APPEARED TO HANDLE THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE
VERY WELL.  GIVEN THE LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH WHICH IS FORECAST
BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BE IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF KAY OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...IT SEEMS THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS
DOES NOT SHOW A FAST ENOUGH WESTWARD MOTION.  HOWEVER...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...JUST
IN CASE THE AFOREMENTIONED GUIDANCE TURNS OUT TO BE AT LEAST
PARTIALLY CORRECT.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/1500Z 14.7N 115.8W    40 KT
 12HR VT     06/0000Z 14.8N 117.4W    40 KT
 24HR VT     06/1200Z 14.9N 119.5W    45 KT
 36HR VT     07/0000Z 15.0N 121.5W    45 KT
 48HR VT     07/1200Z 15.0N 123.0W    50 KT
 72HR VT     08/1200Z 15.0N 126.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     09/1200Z 15.0N 129.0W    50 KT
120HR VT     10/1200Z 15.0N 132.0W    50 KT
 
 
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