Hurricane KENNETH

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TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE SEP 20 2005
 
A CURVED BAND HAS BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP AROUND THE CENTER OF
KENNETH DURING THE DAY...HOWEVER OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS INFRARED
IMAGERY INDICATES THE CYCLONE ALMOST DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. 
DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND 65 KT FROM
AFWA.  BASED ON THE CLASSIFICATIONS AND SATELLITE APPEARANCE...
KENNETH HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WEAKENS THE STORM ON A SLOWER TREND THAN THE SHIPS MODEL.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/2. THE SOUTHWEST DRIFT SEEN
EARLIER TODAY APPEARS TO HAVE STOPPED...AND KENNETH HAS NOW RESUMED
A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION. THE STORM IS BEING STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO MOVE FURTHER TO THE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
CONTINUE TO STEER KENNETH TO THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FOLLOWS
THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL. 
 
FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/2100Z 13.1N 131.6W    55 KT
 12HR VT     21/0600Z 13.3N 132.2W    50 KT
 24HR VT     21/1800Z 13.8N 132.9W    45 KT
 36HR VT     22/0600Z 14.5N 133.7W    40 KT
 48HR VT     22/1800Z 15.0N 134.2W    35 KT
 72HR VT     23/1800Z 16.0N 135.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     24/1800Z 17.5N 138.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     25/1800Z 18.5N 142.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 
 
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