Hurricane KENNETH

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED SEP 21 2005
 
VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A NEW BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. AN EARLIER AMSU-B MICROWAVE OVERPASS
SUGGESTS THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS PARTIAL EXPOSED TO THE
NORTH OF THE BANDING. APPARENTLY...SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS
CAUSING THIS CLOUD PATTERN. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45
KT...BASED ON THE DVORAK T- NUMBERS FROM AFWA AND TAFB. THE UW-CIMSS
SHEAR PRODUCT INDICATES 10 TO 20 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM..AND THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
DEFINED.  HOWEVER... THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING WITHIN A
MORE STABLE AIR MASS...SO GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...WITH THE
TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO BECOME A DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT 3
DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/6. KENNETH SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE MID- LEVEL FLOW OF A RIDGE EXTENDING
WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM TEXAS/MEXICO THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE AND IS BASED OFF OF A BLEND OF THE UKMET/NOGAPS/FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE AND GFDN.
 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/0300Z 14.9N 133.8W    45 KT
 12HR VT     22/1200Z 15.2N 134.6W    40 KT
 24HR VT     23/0000Z 15.5N 135.6W    35 KT
 36HR VT     23/1200Z 15.6N 136.2W    35 KT
 48HR VT     24/0000Z 15.7N 136.8W    35 KT
 72HR VT     25/0000Z 15.9N 137.9W    30 KT
 96HR VT     26/0000Z 16.0N 139.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     27/0000Z 16.0N 140.0W    30 KT
 
 
$$
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Hurricane KENNETH

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT WED SEP 21 2005 VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A NEW BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. AN EARLIER AMSU-B MICROWAVE OVERPASS SUGGESTS THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS PARTIAL EXPOSED TO THE NORTH OF THE BANDING. APPARENTLY...SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS CAUSING THIS CLOUD PATTERN. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KT...BASED ON THE DVORAK T- NUMBERS FROM AFWA AND TAFB. THE UW-CIMSS SHEAR PRODUCT INDICATES 10 TO 20 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM..AND THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED. HOWEVER... THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING WITHIN A MORE STABLE AIR MASS...SO GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...WITH THE TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO BECOME A DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/6. KENNETH SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE MID- LEVEL FLOW OF A RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM TEXAS/MEXICO THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS BASED OFF OF A BLEND OF THE UKMET/NOGAPS/FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND GFDN. FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0300Z 14.9N 133.8W 45 KT 12HR VT 22/1200Z 15.2N 134.6W 40 KT 24HR VT 23/0000Z 15.5N 135.6W 35 KT 36HR VT 23/1200Z 15.6N 136.2W 35 KT 48HR VT 24/0000Z 15.7N 136.8W 35 KT 72HR VT 25/0000Z 15.9N 137.9W 30 KT 96HR VT 26/0000Z 16.0N 139.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 27/0000Z 16.0N 140.0W 30 KT $$ NNNN