Tropical Storm ALBERTO

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TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012006
1100 AM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006

THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS MEASURED A 1400-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND
OF 51 KT IN A BAND OF STRONG WINDS WELL TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTER.  THERE WAS A 1200 UTC SHIP REPORT OF 33 KT IN THAT SAME
AREA.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO A
TROPICAL STORM.  HAVING SAID THAT...THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF
THE STORM IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE.  ALTHOUGH THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER IS
NOW FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO
DISPLACE DEEP CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE CENTER.  GLOBAL MODELS
PREDICT THIS SHEAR TO INCREASE...SO NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SHIPS AND GFDL MODEL PREDICTIONS.

THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE WEST THAN EARLIER
PREDICTED...HOWEVER A MORE NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION MAY NOW BE
DEVELOPING.  INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/8.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING AND A TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.  THEREFORE...IF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS ABLE TO
MAINTAIN AT LEAST A PARTIALLY COHERENT VERTICAL STRUCTURE...IT
WOULD RESPOND TO THIS STEERING REGIME BY TURNING TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.  HOWEVER...IF ALBERTO BECOMES EVEN MORE SEVERELY SHEARED...
IT WOULD MORE LIKELY RESPOND TO SHALLOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW
AND REMAIN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE WEAKENING.  THIS LATTER
SCENARIO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR
TO...ALBEIT SLOWER THAN...THE TRACK PREDICTION FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...GFDL...
GFDN...U.K. MET...AND NOGAPS MODEL TRACKS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST LATER TODAY.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/1500Z 23.9N  88.1W    40 KT
 12HR VT     12/0000Z 24.9N  88.7W    45 KT
 24HR VT     12/1200Z 26.0N  87.8W    45 KT
 36HR VT     13/0000Z 27.3N  85.8W    45 KT
 48HR VT     13/1200Z 28.5N  83.5W    45 KT
 72HR VT     14/1200Z 32.0N  77.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     15/1200Z 39.0N  67.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     16/1200Z 46.0N  54.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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