Tropical Depression TWO-E

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022006
200 AM PDT SUN JUN 04 2006
 
A SEQUENCE OF MICROWAVE PASSES...THE MOST RECENT AT 0319Z...INDICATE
THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY...NEAR THE
SOUTHWEST EDGE OF A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF
ZIHUATANEJO.   THE ADVISORY POSITION...WHICH BLENDS THE MICROWAVE
ESTIMATES WITH CONTINUITY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATING THE
CENTER...IS PROBABLY 20 N MI OR SO TOO FAR TO THE NORTHEAST. 
MEANWHILE...MOST OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION
CONTINUES TO MOVE ONSHORE WITH THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLIES.  THIS SHEARING FLOW IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...AND SO LITTLE OR NO STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED. 
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...THE
PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM REMAINS THE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT IS
LIKELY TO TRIGGER LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES
WITHIN AND INLAND OF THE WARNING AREA.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE MODELS THAT THE MID-LEVEL
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION WILL CONTINUE
NORTHEASTWARD...LEAVING A WEAK REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO
LINGER OFFSHORE.  THE MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THIS IS ALREADY
BEGINNING TO OCCUR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTH
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND ONLY VERY SLOWLY BRINGS THE CENTER OF A
DECAYING SYSTEM TO THE COAST.  THE GFS...UKMET...NOGAPS...AND GFDL
ALL DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. 

 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/0900Z 17.0N 102.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     04/1800Z 17.1N 101.6W    30 KT
 24HR VT     05/0600Z 17.2N 101.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     05/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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