Tropical Depression KRISTY

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006
200 AM PDT SUN SEP 03 2006
 
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE KRISTY HAS
MAINTAINED AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE WITH SHALLOW TO MODERATE DEPTH
CONVECTION WRAPPING ABOUT 75 PERCENT AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
A 03/0144Z HI-RES QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED SEVERAL 40-45 KT
RAIN-CONTAMINATED WIND VECTORS...ALONG WITH NUMEROUS 25-30 KT
UNCONTAMINATED VECTORS...ON THE WEST SIDE OF KRISTY. BASED ON THIS
INFORMATION...THE INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 30 KT. HOWEVER
...IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT KRISTY COULD BE A MINIMAL INTENSITY
TROPICAL STORM.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 120/02. KRISTY REMAINS CAUGHT IN A
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM TROPICAL STORM
JOHN...WHICH IS SITUATED OVER CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND IS
ACTING TO NUDGE KRISTY SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD. AS JOHN GRADUALLY
MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND WEAKENS...THE STEERING INFLUENCE BY THE
TROUGH ON KRISTY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. BY 24-36 HOURS...A
NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD FROM MEXICO
BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONES...FORCING KRISTY OR ITS REMNANTS ON A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK...EXCEPT FOR THE ADDITION OF A 48-HOUR POSITION.
 
THE CURRENT MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
TO NEAR 30 KT DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...AND THEN WEAKEN TO LESS
THAN 10 KT BY 96 HOURS...ASSUMING THE CYCLONE SURVIVES THAT LONG.
KRISTY IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
WHICH WILL PLACE THE CYCLONE OVER WARMER 28C SSTS. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME BRIEF REGENERATION OF DEEPER CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.
IF KRISTY CAN SURVIVE THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE SHIPS AND GFDL
INTENSITY MODELS ACTUALLY RE-STRENGTHEN THE CYCLONE BACK INTO A
WEAK TROPICAL STORM IN 36-48 HOURS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0900Z 18.1N 118.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     03/1800Z 17.9N 117.7W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     04/0600Z 17.4N 117.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     04/1800Z 17.1N 117.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     05/0600Z 17.2N 118.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
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