Tropical Depression SERGIO

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006
100 PM PST MON NOV 20 2006
 
THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF THE SERGIO HAS DETERIORATED OVER THE
COURSE OF THE DAY.  EVEN THOUGH DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 35 KT
FROM TAFB AND 30 KT FROM SAB...THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE A RESULT
OF CONVERGENCE LINES ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION.  IN
ADDITION...SERGIO NO LONGER HAS ORGANIZED CONVECTION OR A WELL-
DEFINED CENTER...WITH A VORTICITY MAXIMUM LOCATED AT THE EASTERN
END OF A TROUGH OR SHEAR AXIS.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON SERGIO UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.
HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS CAN
STILL BE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE
REMNANTS OF SERGIO PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO
HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

WITH RESPECT TO STATISTICS...SERGIO IS THE LONGEST RUNNING TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC FOR NOVEMBER.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/2100Z 14.9N 108.0W    25 KT
 12HR VT     21/0600Z 15.0N 108.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     21/1800Z 15.3N 110.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     22/0600Z 15.5N 111.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI
 
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