Tropical Storm HUMBERTO

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TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092007
1100 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2007
 
HOUSTON WSR-88D VELOCITY DATA INDICATE THAT HUMBERTO HAS
INTENSIFIED.  SOME ISOLATED SPOTS OF 65 TO 70 KT WINDS AROUND THE
3000 FT LEVEL HAVE BEEN OBSERVED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE
CENTER.  THIS CORRESPONDS TO A SURFACE WIND ESTIMATE OF ABOUT 55 KT
WHICH WILL BE USED FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.  RADAR REFLECTIVITY
DATA INDICATE THE FORMATION OF A PARTIAL EYEWALL. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR BEFORE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL EARLY ON
THURSDAY...AND WINDS COULD BE APPROACHING HURRICANE FORCE OVER A
SMALL AREA NEAR HUMBERTO'S CENTER WHEN IT REACHES THE COAST.

BASED ON RADAR FIXES THE CURRENT MOTION...030/05 IS A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  HUMBERTO IS MOVING AROUND THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD OVER TEXAS SHOULD CAUSE A NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS.  BEYOND THAT TIME...THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
TROUGH COULD BYPASS HUMBERTO...OR ITS REMNANTS.  SHOULD THIS
OCCUR...THE SYSTEM COULD LINGER NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AFTER
48 HOURS.  BASED MAINLY ON THE CURRENT MOTION...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THAT FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS A CONCERN WITH THIS SLOW-MOVING TROPICAL CYCLONE. 
SOME LOCATIONS COULD EXPERIENCE PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 10 TO 15
INCHES.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/0300Z 29.0N  94.6W    55 KT
 12HR VT     13/1200Z 30.1N  93.9W    50 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     14/0000Z 31.6N  92.7W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     14/1200Z 32.5N  91.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     15/0000Z 32.5N  90.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     16/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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