Hurricane HENRIETTE

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HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 04 2007
 
THE CENTER OF HENRIETTE HAS RECENTLY EMERGED OVER THE SEA OF CORTEZ
NEAR ISLA CERRALVO.  THE RAGGED EYE THAT WAS SEEN IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY PRIOR TO LANDFALL ERODED DURING HENRIETTE'S BRIEF PASSAGE
OVER LAND. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS NOT
DEGRADED VERY MUCH AND A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB
SUGGESTS THAT HENRIETTE IS STILL A HURRICANE.

THE MOTION HAS BEEN BETWEEN NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH DURING THE
PAST 12 HOURS OR SO...ABOUT 350/10.  THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION UNTIL
LANDFALL IN MAINLAND MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS A
PERSISTENCE COMPONENT AND IS TO THE RIGHT OR EAST OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.  IT IS ALSO A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK. 
THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE UKMET AND THE FLORIDA
STATE SUPERENSEMBLE...WHICH HAVE PERFORMED BETTER DURING THE PAST
24 HOURS.

HENRIETTE WEAKENED LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED OVER BAJA...SO THE
INTENSITY FORECAST NOW KEEPS IT AT HURRICANE STRENGTH UNTIL
LANDFALL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT HENRIETTE
COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE SINCE THE WATER IN THE SEA OF CORTEZ IS
QUITE WARM AND THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW.  THIS FORECAST
ASSUMES THAT HENRIETTE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME OVER WATER IN WHICH
TO STRENGTHEN.  IF THE HURRICANE MOVES LEFT OF TRACK AND SPENDS
MORE TIME OVER WATER IT COULD BE STRONGER THAN NOTED BELOW.

BECAUSE HENRIETTE WILL APPROACH THE MAINLAND COAST AT A SHARPLY
OBLIQUE ANGLE...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND/OR
LANDFALL LOCATION. A SMALL DEVIATION LEFT OR RIGHT OF THE FORECAST
WOULD MAKE A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN LANDFALL LOCATION ALONG MAINLAND
MEXICO.  WHILE IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL
SURVIVE THE TRACK OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO...MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HENRIETTE SHOULD MAKE IT INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/0300Z 24.1N 109.7W    65 KT
 12HR VT     05/1200Z 25.6N 110.1W    65 KT
 24HR VT     06/0000Z 27.5N 110.2W    65 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     06/1200Z 29.7N 110.0W    35 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     07/0000Z 31.8N 108.9W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 72HR VT     08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
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