Hurricane ELIDA
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HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 15 2008
THE COLD CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH ELIDA CONTINUE TO BECOME LESS
SYMETRIC WITH TIME AS EASTERLY SHEAR PERSISTS OVER THE STORM. THIS
IS REFLECTED IN THE LATEST DVORAK CI NUMBERS...WHICH DECREASED TO
3.5 AND 4.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. ALL OF THIS EVIDENCE
POINTS TO ELIDA CONTINING ON A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. AS A RESULT...
THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS LOWERED TO 65 KT. THERE IS OVERALL
AGREEMENT WITHIN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE THAT ELIDA WILL GRADUALLY
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE STORM MOVES OVER COOLER WATER.
ELIDA SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD HEADING FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO FORECAST TO
BUILD WESTWARD WITH TIME. THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT NORTHWARD
COMPONENT TO THE STORM MOTION UNTIL THE RIDGE GETS INTO PLACE BY 24
TO 36 HOURS. AT THAT POINT...ELIDA SHOULD TAKE AN ALMOST DUE
WESTWARD PATH. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...WE OPTED TO FOLLOW THE GUIDANCE
THAT TAKES ELIDA ON A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST TRACK OWING TO THE
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW NATURE OF THE CYCLONE.
DATA FROM A 1322 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS WERE USED TO ADJUST THE INITIAL
34 KT AND 50 KT WIND RADII IN THE NORTHERN SEMICRICLE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/2100Z 16.5N 113.3W 65 KT
12HR VT 16/0600Z 16.8N 115.1W 65 KT
24HR VT 16/1800Z 17.3N 117.6W 60 KT
36HR VT 17/0600Z 17.7N 120.2W 55 KT
48HR VT 17/1800Z 17.9N 123.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 18/1800Z 18.1N 128.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 19/1800Z 18.0N 132.6W 30 KT
120HR VT 20/1800Z 17.5N 135.9W 25 KT
$$
FORECASTER BANN
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