Tropical Storm ELIDA
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TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 18 2008
ELIDA IS NOW A MOSTLY EXPOSED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS...WITH JUST A
LITTLE BIT OF DEEP CONVECTION LEFT IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
ESTIMATES OF THE MAXIMUM WINDS USING A BLEND OF DVORAK T AND CI
NUMBERS SPAN A WIDE RANGE...BUT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY LEANS TOWARD
THE LOWER END OF THOSE VALUES AND IS SET TO 35 KT. ELIDA IS OVER
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 23 CELSIUS...AND ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK THEY ARE NOT GOING TO GET MUCH WARMER ANYTIME
SOON...SO THE SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY TO REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FOR MORE THAN HALF A DAY OR SO.
THERE SHOULD BE NO SURPRISES REGARDING THE PATH OF ELIDA. THE
INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 270/13...AND THE CYCLONE AND ITS EVENTUAL
REMNANT LOW SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AND THE NEW TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 18/2100Z 18.0N 128.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 19/0600Z 18.0N 130.6W 30 KT
24HR VT 19/1800Z 17.8N 133.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 20/0600Z 17.7N 135.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 20/1800Z 17.5N 137.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 21/1800Z 17.0N 143.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 22/1800Z 17.0N 149.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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FORECASTER KNABB
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