Tropical Storm BLANCA

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TROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032009
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 07 2009

A RECENT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRED VERY NEAR THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION...SO THE SYSTEM IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL STORM
FOR NOW.  THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 35 KT FROM TAFB.  IT WAS A BIT SURPRISING TO SEE THE
RECENT REJUVENATION OF CONVECTION GIVEN THAT THE SSTS ARE LIKELY
LOWER THAN 24 DEG C.  HOWEVER SINCE BLANCA WILL BE MOVING OVER EVEN
COOLER WATERS...IT SHOULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION SOON AND
BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS OR LESS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS...ICON.

MICROWAVE AND GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE FIXES GIVE A CURRENT MOTION OF
ABOUT 300/10...SO THE ANTICIPATED DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED HAS NOT
YET TAKEN PLACE.  NONETHELESS...THE WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF BLANCA SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL
DECELERATION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND A MORE WESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED WHEN THE CYCLONE BECOMES A WEAK LOW.  THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS MORE OR LESS THE SAME TRAJECTORY AS THE
PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS A LITTLE FASTER BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT
MOTION.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/0300Z 20.3N 117.8W    35 KT
 12HR VT     08/1200Z 21.1N 119.1W    30 KT
 24HR VT     09/0000Z 21.7N 120.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     09/1200Z 22.2N 121.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     10/0000Z 22.5N 122.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     11/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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