Hurricane FELICIA

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HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082009
200 AM PDT WED AUG 05 2009
 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 0600 UTC FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE
T4.5 AND T4.0...RESPECTIVELY...BUT SINCE THAT TIME THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE.  THE EYE HAS NOW PERSISTED
FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND CONTINUES TO WARM WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION
LOCATED IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLES.  AN ANALYSIS
WOULD NOW YIELD A AVERAGE DATA T-NUMBER OF 5.0 ON THE DVORAK
SCALE...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING RAISED TO 90 KT.
 
NOW THAT FELICIA IS A DEEPER SYSTEM...IT IS BEING PULLED A LITTLE
MORE TO THE NORTH BY A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OFF
THE U.S. WEST COAST.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/10...AND LITTLE
CHANGE TO THIS HEADING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE THE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.  BY DAYS 4 AND 5...
TWO FACTORS WILL CAUSE FELICIA TO TURN TO THE WEST.  FIRST...THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND WILL BE
REPLACED BY A MID-LEVEL HIGH CURRENTLY LOCATED NORTH OF HAWAII. 
SECOND...FELICIA WILL LIKELY BE WEAKENING BY THAT TIME AND WILL BE
INFLUENCED MORE STRONGLY BY THE LOWER-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW.  THERE
HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR THIS PACKAGE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SHIFTED NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND FELICIA REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
STRENGTHENING.  THE MID-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW NEAR CALIFORNIA IS
INDUCING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO THE NORTH OF FELICIA...AND IT APPEARS
THAT AN OUTFLOW JET MAY BE FORMING.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...AND OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT
SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  THE
NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK FORECAST PUTS FELICIA OVER 24-25
DEGREES CELSIUS WATER AFTER 48 HOURS...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST ACCOUNTS FOR THIS BY SHOWING FASTER WEAKENING
THAN WAS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  IF FELICIA STAYS A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH...IT MIGHT BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/0900Z 13.4N 128.2W    90 KT
 12HR VT     05/1800Z 14.1N 129.5W   100 KT
 24HR VT     06/0600Z 15.1N 131.2W   105 KT
 36HR VT     06/1800Z 16.1N 132.8W   100 KT
 48HR VT     07/0600Z 17.1N 134.6W    90 KT
 72HR VT     08/0600Z 18.5N 139.0W    75 KT
 96HR VT     09/0600Z 19.0N 144.5W    65 KT
120HR VT     10/0600Z 19.0N 150.0W    50 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
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