Hurricane FELICIA

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HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082009
800 AM PDT THU AUG 06 2009
 
CLOUD TOPS HAVE RECENTLY COOLED IN THE EYEWALL OF FELICIA DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS...THOUGH THE EYE TEMPERATURE HAS ALSO COOLED AT THE
SAME TIME.  OVERALL...THE CHANGES HAVE BEEN PRETTY SMALL WITH THE
HURRICANE MAINTAINING A WELL-DEFINED EYE AND A SYMMETRICAL OUTFLOW
PATTERN.  DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE MOSTLY UNCHANGED
AND SUPPORT KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 120 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.  

SOME WEAKENING OF THE HURRICANE IS LIKELY TO OCCUR SOON AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS.  HOWEVER...FELICIA
IS DEMONSTRATING SOME ANNULAR HURRICANE CHARACTERISTICS...AND WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
WHICH COULD ENABLE THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY MORE THAN
IT NORMALLY WOULD OVER MARGINAL SSTS.  FOR THESE REASONS...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS KEPT ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE DURING
THE FIRST 36 HOURS.  ALTHOUGH SSTS RISE SLIGHTLY AS THE HURRICANE
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THE WEAKENING
PROCESS. IN FACT...ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT FELICIA
WILL BE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...OR DISSIPATED...BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST.  

THE ESTIMATED MOVEMENT DURING THE PAST TWELVE HOURS IS 305/9.  THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE HURRICANE
MOVES TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS...RIDGING CURRENTLY NORTH OF HAWAII IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EASTWARD AND CAUSE A WESTWARD TURN OF FELICIA.  ASIDE FROM THE
NOGAPS MODEL...WHICH HAS A STRANGE INITIAL INTERACTION BETWEEN
FELICIA AND ENRIQUE...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS FORECAST SCENARIO.  IN THE LONGER-RANGE...FELICIA IS EXPECTED
TO BE STEERED A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST AS IT BECOMES A SHALLOWER
SYSTEM AND MORE INFLUENCED BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADES.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST AND THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/1500Z 16.0N 131.9W   120 KT
 12HR VT     07/0000Z 16.8N 133.0W   115 KT
 24HR VT     07/1200Z 17.9N 134.6W   105 KT
 36HR VT     08/0000Z 18.9N 136.7W    85 KT
 48HR VT     08/1200Z 19.6N 139.1W    70 KT
 72HR VT     09/1200Z 20.0N 144.5W    55 KT
 96HR VT     10/1200Z 19.7N 150.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     11/1200Z 19.5N 155.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
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