Hurricane JIMENA
ZCZC MIAPWSEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE JIMENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
2100 UTC SAT AUG 29 2009
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X X X 3 21
TROP DEPRESSION X X X X X 7 33
TROPICAL STORM X X X X 5 43 41
HURRICANE 99 99 99 99 95 47 5
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 1 1 3 22 33 4
HUR CAT 2 12 4 7 10 26 9 1
HUR CAT 3 79 41 33 35 33 4 X
HUR CAT 4 8 49 49 41 13 X X
HUR CAT 5 1 5 10 11 2 X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 105KT 120KT 125KT 125KT 110KT 80KT 50KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 5(19)
P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) 12(40) 1(41)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) 1(16)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 11(35) 1(36)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 1(13)
SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 16(29) 2(31)
LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11)
LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 3(17)
LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
LORETO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)
HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9)
CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) 1(15)
CULICAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
CULICAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8)
SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12)
MANZANILLO 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 23(27) 35(62) 4(66) 1(67)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 25(33) 3(36) X(36)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 2(21) X(21)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) X(15)
ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 8(14) 2(16) X(16)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NNNN
NHC on Facebook
Twitter
YouTube
NHC Blog: