Hurricane RICK

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009
800 AM PDT SAT OCT 17 2009
 
RICK HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY THIS MORNING...WITH SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB INCREASING TO 127 AND 115 KT
RESPECTIVELY.  IN ADDITION...AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATES
FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN ARE 127 KT.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 125 KT.  INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A LITTLE
WARMING OF THE EYEWALL CLOUD TOPS DURING THE PAST FEW HRS...AND
RECENT SSM/I IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY THAT AN OUTER EYEWALL
IS FORMING IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF
THESE ARE SIGNS THAT RICK IS PEAKING IN INTENSITY.

RICK SHOULD REMAIN IN A NEARLY-IDEAL ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE
NEXT 18-24 HRS.  THUS...IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNTIL AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE OCCURS OR IT REACHES THE MAXIMUM
POTENTIAL INTENSITY FOR THAT AREA.  BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR THE HURRICANE TO REACH CATEGORY FIVE STATUS IN
12-24 HRS.  AFTER THAT...GRADUALLY COOLING SSTS AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD START A STEADY WEAKENING TREND FOR
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES COULD
CAUSE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY SUPERIMPOSED ON THE GENERAL TREND
INDICATED IN THE FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/10.  RICK REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...WHICH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AFTER 48 HRS AS A STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD STEER RICK
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HRS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW
RECURVATURE THROUGH THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE FROM 48-120 HRS.  AFTER
48 HRS...THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST AND
IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THE NEW TRACK
FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND.  THE FORECAST IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 72 HRS...AND THEN IS DOWN THE LEFT
SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE.
 
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/1500Z 14.2N 103.0W   125 KT
 12HR VT     18/0000Z 14.7N 104.9W   135 KT
 24HR VT     18/1200Z 15.3N 107.4W   140 KT
 36HR VT     19/0000Z 16.2N 109.5W   135 KT
 48HR VT     19/1200Z 17.1N 111.2W   125 KT
 72HR VT     20/1200Z 19.0N 112.5W   110 KT
 96HR VT     21/1200Z 21.5N 112.5W    95 KT
120HR VT     22/1200Z 24.5N 110.5W    80 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
NNNN