Tropical Storm EARL

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TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
500 PM AST FRI AUG 27 2010
 
EARL CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE CIRCULATION AND THE ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BEEN PULSATING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
CURRENTLY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SEVERAL CONVECTIVE
CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS DEVELOPING ON ITS WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. AN
EARLIER ASCAT PASS AS WELL AS THE LATEST SATELLITE ESTIMATES
INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KNOTS. GIVEN THE
CURRENT POORLY ORGANIZED PATTERN...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. HOWEVER...EARL WILL BE MOVING SOON OVER AN
EVEN WARMER OCEAN AND UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR EARL
TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY AND BECOME AN INTENSE ONE BY DAY
FIVE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH GUIDANCE WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
FORECASTING INTENSIFICATION.

ALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION IS LARGE THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE. IT APPEARS THAT I WAS EITHER SLOW THIS MORNING OR EARL HAS
ACCELERATED A LITTLE BIT. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION
IS 270 DEGREES OR WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS.  EARL IS EXPECTED TO BE
STEERED BY THE EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE WILL REACH THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST. I FEEL A LITTLE MORE CERTAIN WITH THE
NORTHWESTWARD TURN IN THIS FORECAST SINCE ALL TRACK GUIDANCE
UNANIMOUSLY BEGIN TO MOVE EARL ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY COURSE
BY 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...A DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING EARL INTO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
WITH THE WEEKEND COMING...RESIDENTS IN THESE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE  PROGRESS OF EARL. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/2100Z 15.8N  46.0W    40 KT
 12HR VT     28/0600Z 15.9N  48.7W    40 KT
 24HR VT     28/1800Z 16.3N  52.2W    50 KT
 36HR VT     29/0600Z 17.0N  55.5W    60 KT
 48HR VT     29/1800Z 17.5N  58.0W    70 KT
 72HR VT     30/1800Z 19.5N  62.2W    80 KT
 96HR VT     31/1800Z 23.0N  65.0W    90 KT
120HR VT     01/1800Z 27.0N  68.0W   100 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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