Hurricane EARL

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HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
1100 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2010
 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE EYE OF EARL HAS
BECOME MORE WELL-DEFINED AND THE CLOUD TOPS IN THE EYEWALL HAVE
COOLED.  A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
HURRICANE FOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND THEY MEASURED WINDS TO 137 KT JUST NORTH OF THE
CENTER AT A FLIGHT LEVEL JUST BELOW 7000 FT.  REDUCING THIS WIND
SPEED FROM THE AIRCRAFT FLIGHT LEVEL TO THE SURFACE YIELDS ABOUT
120 KT...AND THAT WILL BE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.  SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DUE TO INNER CORE CHANGES ARE LIKELY ON
THURSDAY.  EARL SHOULD REMAIN IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR ABOUT
ANOTHER 24 HOURS...THEREFORE GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE IN A
DAY OR SO.  HOWEVER...EARL IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE
STATUS WHEN IT IS NEAREST TO...OR POSSIBLY OVER...THE OUTER BANKS.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS RATHER CLOSE TO THE LATEST
STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
 
THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE WOBBLED NORTHWARD A COUPLE OF HOURS
AGO...HOWEVER THE MEAN MOTION APPEARS TO BE ABOUT 330/16. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK OR
SYNOPTIC REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS FORECAST HAS NUDGED EASTWARD ABOUT 20 N
MI ON THIS CYCLE. EARL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH AND SLIGHTLY EAST OF NORTH AS IT MOVES ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THEREAFTER...A STRONG 500 MB TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
SHOULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND
ACCELERATE.  ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK OF
THIS LARGE AND INTENSE HURRICANE.  SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE LIKELY
TO BE FELT WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/0300Z 27.8N  73.8W   120 KT
 12HR VT     02/1200Z 30.0N  75.1W   120 KT
 24HR VT     03/0000Z 33.2N  75.2W   110 KT
 36HR VT     03/1200Z 36.5N  73.7W   100 KT
 48HR VT     04/0000Z 40.0N  70.7W    85 KT
 72HR VT     05/0000Z 48.5N  61.5W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96HR VT     06/0000Z 57.0N  57.0W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT     07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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