Hurricane RICHARD

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HURRICANE RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010
400 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010
 
RICHARD APPEARS TO HAVE INTENSIFIED A LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS.  AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
HURRICANE REPORTED A PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 86 KT EXITING
THE EYE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE HIGHEST UNFLAGGED SFMR WIND SPEED
WAS 69 KT.  HOWEVER...THE SFMR INSTRUMENT HAS ISSUES MEASURING THE
SURFACE WINDS IN AREAS OF SHALLOW WATER SUCH AS IS THE CASE JUST
OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE.  THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED
FROM A DROPSONDE WAS 981 MB.  BASED ON THE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER
CENTRAL PRESSURE AND THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION ON SATELLITE AND
BELIZE RADAR IMAGES...THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 80 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.  SINCE THE CENTER WILL BE CROSSING THE COASTLINE IN A
COUPLE OF HOURS...SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS NOW
UNLIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  STEADY WEAKENING WILL COMMENCE AFTER
THE CENTER MOVES INLAND THIS EVENING.  THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO
EMERGE INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A
CONSIDERABLY WEAKENED STATE IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...AND STRONG
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT RE-INTENSIFICATION.
 
RICHARD HAS BEEN MOVING AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED...OR
ABOUT 285/11.  A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL CAUSE SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.    THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MORE
DIVERGENT AFTER A DAY OR SO...REFLECTING AN INCREASED UNCERTAINTY
IN THE STEERING CURRENTS.  HOWEVER...SINCE RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO
BE REDUCED TO A WEAK CYCLONE BY 48 HOURS...IT SHOULD THEN BE
STEERED BY THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NOT MUCH
DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE SUITE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/2100Z 17.2N  88.0W    80 KT
 12HR VT     25/0600Z 17.6N  89.4W    60 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     25/1800Z 18.0N  90.5W    40 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     26/0600Z 18.7N  91.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     26/1800Z 19.5N  92.5W    25 KT...OVER WATER
 72HR VT     27/1800Z 21.3N  94.3W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     28/1800Z 23.0N  96.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     29/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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