Tropical Storm ISAAC

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2012
 
...ISAAC STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...CENTER TO MAKE LANDFALL IN
HAITI TONIGHT...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...17.2N 71.9W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR ANDROS ISLAND.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...BERRY ISLANDS...
BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS...THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SOUTH OF
JUPITER INLET...THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF BONITA
BEACH...FLORIDA BAY...AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO
* ANDROS ISLAND
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG
CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS
* JAMAICA
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...BERRY ISLANDS...
BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE.
* THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SOUTH OF JUPITER INLET
* THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH
* FLORIDA BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF CUBA AND THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.9 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL IN HAITI
THIS EVENING...MOVE NEAR OR OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA ON SATURDAY...
MOVE NEAR OR OVER CENTRAL CUBA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND APPROACH THE
FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY.
 
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY
BEFORE LANDFALL...FOLLOWED BY SOME WEAKENING AS THE CENTER CROSSES
HAITI AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA...AS WELL
AS JAMAICA. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO. TOTAL
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS.  RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.
 
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND ARE EXPECTED OVER ANDROS ISLAND BY SUNDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA BY TONIGHT
AND OVER CENTRAL CUBA BY SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS COULD REACH NORTHWESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS BY SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY...AND SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY.
 
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.
 
SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...THE
TURKS AND CAICOS...AND EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
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