Tropical Storm OLIVIA

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TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152012
800 AM PDT SUN OCT 07 2012
 
ALTHOUGH OLIVIA HAS LOST ITS BANDING FEATURES DURING THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS...THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS EXPANDED. A RECENT
TRMM PASS AND SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGES SHOW A DISTINCT MID-LEVEL
CENTER...BUT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DISPLACED ABOUT 30 N MI TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL FEATURE DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. ALTHOUGH DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED A LITTLE THIS
CYCLE...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 50 KT SINCE THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED RECENTLY.
 
OLIVIA COULD GAIN SOME STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
CYCLONE REMAINS IN ABOUT 10 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND STAYS
OVER WARM WATERS OF ABOUT 28C. BY LATE TOMORROW...HOWEVER...
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE...WHICH COULD LEAD
TO THE DECOUPLING OF OLIVIA. THEREFORE...STEADY WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED TO COMMENCE AROUND THAT TIME. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS LOWERED A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT
REMAINS ABOVE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.
 
TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA HAS SLOWED DOWN...AND THE LATEST INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/5. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND A DEEP-LAYER LOW LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD. BY TUESDAY...OLIVIA IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST OR EVEN SOUTHWEST
AS THE WEAKENING SYSTEM BECOMES SHALLOW IN NATURE AND IS STEERED BY
THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A
TAD TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE SHORT-TERM...TRENDING
TOWARD THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODELS...BUT IS OTHERWISE SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AFTER THAT.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/1500Z 14.5N 121.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 15.2N 121.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z 16.1N 121.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  09/0000Z 16.6N 121.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  09/1200Z 16.8N 122.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  10/1200Z 16.4N 123.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  11/1200Z 15.9N 125.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  12/1200Z 15.3N 128.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
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