Tropical Storm BARBARA

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TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022013
800 PM PDT WED MAY 29 2013
 
BARBARA CONTINUES TO QUICKLY WEAKEN WHILE MOVING FURTHER INLAND OVER
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.  CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED
CONSIDERABLY...AND WE HAVE NOT RECEIVED ANY RECENT REPORTS OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO
BE 45 KT BASED ON A NORMAL INLAND DECAY RATE.  THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS LIKELY BEING DISRUPTED BY THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...AND BARBARA IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS BARBARA EMERGING OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO AS A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...NONE OF
THE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SHOW A CLOSED SURFACE WIND CIRCULATION AT
THAT POINT...AND IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT BARBARA WILL DISSIPATE
BEFORE REACHING WATER.  IN ANY CASE...ONCE THE REMNANTS OF BARBARA
REACH THE GULF OF MEXICO...THEY WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION.
 
OF MORE IMMINENT CONCERN IS THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT IS FALLING OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO.  EVEN THOUGH BARBARA IS
WEAKENING...DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH ITS REMNANTS IS
LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.  THIS WILL CONTINUE A HEIGHTENED
RISK OF DANGEROUS FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER THE REGION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0300Z 17.1N  93.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 12H  30/1200Z 18.1N  93.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  31/0000Z 18.8N  93.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  31/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG/BEVEN
 
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