Tropical Storm MANUEL

ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 13 2013
 
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT MANUEL HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. BANDING FEATURES HAVE
IMPROVED IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT TO THE NORTHWEST...AND RECENT
PASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGES HAVE REVEALED A SMALL LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
EYELIKE FEATURE. FIXES FROM TAFB AND SAB...ALONG WITH ADT ESTIMATES
ARE AROUND 35 KT. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 40
KT BASED ON THE 15-20 NMI DIAMETER EYELIKE FEATURE. THE 34-KT WIND
RADII WERE EXPANDED...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHEAST...BASED ON WIND
REPORTS FROM SHIP DFZB2.
 
IT APPEARS THAT MANUEL HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS NOW NEARLY STATIONARY.
MANUEL IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER SYNOPTIC-SCALE CYCLONIC GYRE
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
MEXICO AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH INCLUDES TROPICAL STORM
INGRID LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MOST OF THE NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING THE ENTIRE GYRE COMPLEX TO SHIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN MANUEL GRADUALLY ASSUMING A NORTHWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY AND CONTINUING UNTIL LANDFALL
IN 36-48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES TO THE LEFT OF THE TVCE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...MANUEL HAS A
SMALL RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT TRMM
AND SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATING AN EYELIKE FEATURE. SINCE
THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER 18-24
HOURS...MANUEL HAS A GOOD CHANCE TO INTENSIFY...AND THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A LITTLE ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS
MODEL ICON. HOWEVER...IF INNER-CORE DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS SOONER
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THEN MANUEL COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE
STRENGTH WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/0300Z 15.3N 102.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 16.0N 102.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  15/0000Z 17.0N 102.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  15/1200Z 18.1N 103.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  16/0000Z 19.1N 103.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  17/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
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