Hurricane CRISTOBAL
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HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
1100 AM AST THU AUG 28 2014
The satellite presentation of Cristobal has become much more
symmetric than at any earlier time during its life. The center is
embedded within an area of deep convection and a warm spot has
become evident in recent visible satellite images. T-numbers from
both SAB and TAFB are 4.0 on the Dvorak Scale and the initial
intensity is set at 65 kt. Some strengthening is expected
today while the hurricane remains over warm water. The cyclone will
begin to interact with a frontal zone tonight and should complete
extratropical transition on Friday. The global models indicate that
the extratropical low will remain a powerful cyclone over the north
Atlantic during the next few days. The low is forecast to merge
with another large extratropical cyclone over the north Atlantic in
3 to 4 days.
Cristobal is moving northeastward at about 23 kt. The cyclone
should continue to accelerate northeastward in the mid-latitude
westerlies during the next day or so. The updated NHC track is
close to the previous advisory and near the middle of the guidance
envelope. The track, intensity and wind radii forecasts of the
extratropical low have been coordinated with the Ocean Prediction
Center.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/1500Z 36.9N 65.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 39.7N 59.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 43.8N 51.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 48.0N 43.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 30/1200Z 51.5N 36.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 31/1200Z 61.1N 25.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 01/1200Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW
$$
Forecaster Brown
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