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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  11A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015
200 PM AST THU AUG 27 2015

...ERIKA SLIGHTLY WEAKER...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 63.8W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM W OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Antigua and Barbuda.

The government of the Dominican Republic has extended the Tropical
Storm Watch southward to Isla Saona.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Montserrat
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Dominican Republic from the northern border with Haiti eastward
  and southward to Isla Saona
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic should monitor the
progress of Erika.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 63.8 West.  Erika is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h).  A turn toward the
west-northwest is forecast later today, and this general motion
should continue for the next 48 hours.  On the forecast track, the
center of Erika will move near the Virgin Islands later today,
move near or over Puerto Rico tonight, and move near or over the
Dominican Republic on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast during the next
48 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over
portions of the warning area in the Leeward Islands for the next
few hours, and reach the Virgin Islands later today and Puerto
Rico tonight.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch
area in the Leeward Islands through early this afternoon.  Tropical
storm conditions could reach portions of the watch area in the
Dominican Republic on Friday, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks
and Caicos Islands late Friday and Friday night.

RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches possible across
portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the
southeastern Bahamas through Saturday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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