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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015
530 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

Visible satellite images this afternoon indicate that deep
convection has developed over the center of the well-defined low
pressure system to the south of Zihuatanejo, Mexico.  Therefore the
system qualifies as a tropical cyclone, and advisories are being
initiated at this time.

The initial motion estimate is 300/05.  The depression is located
in a region of weak steering but with enough ridging in the short
term for the cyclone to drift generally west-northwestward to
northwestward through Monday.  In 36-48 hours, a mid-level
ridge located west of the cyclone could impart an unusual southward
motion for a day or so.  After that time, global models show
stronger ridging developing over northern Mexico and the
south-central United States, which should result in a faster
west-northwestward or northwestward motion. The official NHC track
forecast is close to the multi-model consensus (TVCE) throughout the
forecast period.

Strong northwesterly vertical wind shear associated with the
outflow of Hurricane Andres should preclude significant
intensification during the next day or two.  After that time, the
shear is expected to become northeasterly and decrease
substantially, while the cyclone moves slowly in a moist
environment and over very warm waters of around 30 deg C.  These
factors should lead to a faster rate intensification, perhaps
greater than what is currently forecast.  The NHC intensity
forecast is closest to the SHIPS and HWRF models, which show the
most strengthening of the intensity guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/2230Z 12.4N 103.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 13.1N 103.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 13.7N 104.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z 13.8N 104.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  02/1800Z 13.3N 104.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  03/1800Z 12.3N 104.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  04/1800Z 12.7N 105.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  05/1800Z 15.0N 107.4W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain/Pasch

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