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HURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015
300 PM MDT FRI JUN 05 2015

An Air Force reconnaissance plane reached the core of Blanca and
measured with the SFMR a peak wind of 81 kt as it was flying across
the southeastern eyewall. These winds were confined to a very small
area, and the surface winds were barely of hurricane force in
the remainder of the circulation. However, it measured 90 kt at
700 mb as it was exiting the eye on the northwest side. On this
basis, the initial intensity has been set at 80 kt. Although the NHC
intensity forecast does not show strengthening, Blanca has a small
opportunity to do so before it moves over cooler waters in about a
day. Thereafter, a gradual weakening should begin, and Blanca is
expected to be a tropical storm as it moves near or over the
southern Baja California peninsula. It should then become a remnant
low when it encounters the high terrain. In fact, the statistical
intensity guidance dissipates the cyclone beyond 72 hours.

Satellite and reconnaissance fixes indicate that Blanca is moving
toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 8 kt. The hurricane is moving
around the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge over the
United States and northern Mexico. As Blanca gains latitude, it will
become steered by the southerly flow ahead of an approaching
mid-latitude trough and turn more toward the north. The dynamical
guidance continues to be in good agreement, bringing the cyclone
near or over the southern Baja California peninsula beyond 48 hours
or so. The NHC forecast follows very close the consensus of the GFS
and the ECMWF and is basically in the middle of the very tight
dynamical guidance envelope.

Moisture associated with Blanca is moving northward and could help
produce heavy rainfall over portions of southwestern Mexico during
the next day or so, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2100Z 15.3N 107.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 16.3N 108.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 17.8N 109.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  07/0600Z 19.7N 110.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  07/1800Z 21.5N 110.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  08/1800Z 25.0N 111.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  09/1800Z 27.8N 113.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

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