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HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015
400 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

Patricia has an impressive satellite presentation, with a small
10 n mi wide eye surrounded by convective cloud tops of -80C to
-90C. The NOAA Hurricane Hunter Aircraft found that the pressure had
fallen to about 953 mb on their final pass through the center, after
indicating earlier that the intensity had increased to 115 kt, which
remains the intensity for this advisory. Further strengthening is
indicated by much of the intensity guidance given that the shear
remains low and the hurricane is over SSTs of 30-31C. The official
forecast shows the cyclone peaking at 135 kt in 12 hours, followed
by a little weakening prior to landfall as the shear increases, and
this is close to the latest intensity consensus aids. Patricia could
also undergo an eyewall replacement cycle before landfall that
could result in fluctuations in intensity not shown here. After
landfall, the hurricane should quickly weaken over the high terrain
and dissipate by 72 hours.

The hurricane has begun turning a bit more poleward and slowed down
during the past few hours, with an initial motion estimate of
300/11. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, with
Patricia expected to turn northwestward and then northward during
the next 24 hours as it moves around the periphery of a mid-level
high centered over the Gulf of Mexico. The hurricane is then
forecast to accelerate north-northeastward between the high and an
amplifying trough over northwestern Mexico. The new NHC track is
again a bit to the left of the previous one and is close to the new
GFS/ECMWF consensus along on the western side of the guidance
envelope.

Based on the latest forecast, the government of Mexico has extended
the hurricane warning north of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas, which
includes the Puerto Vallarta area.

Model guidance continues to suggest that the mid-level remnants and
moisture from Patricia will be absorbed by a non-tropical area of
low pressure that forms over south Texas or the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico this weekend. This moisture could contribute to a major
rainfall event already ongoing across portions of Texas. For more
information, please refer to products from your local National
Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Confidence is increasing that Patricia will make landfall in the
hurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely
dangerous major hurricane Friday afternoon or evening. Preparations
to protect life and property in the hurricane warning area should be
completed today, as tropical storm conditions will begin to affect
the warning area tonight or early Friday.

2.  In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is
likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the
Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero beginning
late tonight and continuing into Saturday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z 15.4N 104.6W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 16.5N 105.6W  135 KT 155 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 18.1N 105.9W  130 KT 150 MPH
 36H  24/0600Z 20.6N 104.9W  100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
 48H  24/1800Z 23.3N 102.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 72H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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