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HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  32A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
200 AM EDT THU OCT 06 2016

...MATTHEW POUNDING PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
...EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT APPROACHES FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.7N 76.7W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 295 MI...480 KM SE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins,
Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island
* Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay,
San Salvador, and Cat Island
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and
New Providence
* North of Golden Beach to Fernandina Beach
* Lake Okeechobee

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Golden Beach
* Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward
* Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Chokoloskee to Suwannee River

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and
in the Carolinas should monitor the progress of Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 76.7 West. Matthew is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today.  A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected Thursday night.  On the forecast
track, the eye of Matthew should pass near Andros Island and
New Providence in the northwestern Bahamas early this morning, then
pass near Grand Bahama Island late today, and move very close to
the east coast of the Florida peninsula Thursday night through
Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Matthew is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Strengthening is expected during the next
day or so, and Matthew is forecast to be a category 4 hurricane as
it approaches the east coast of Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).  An unofficial observing site on Staniel Cay in the
Exumas recently reported a sustained wind of 87 mph (140 km/h)
with a gust to 92 mph (148 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 954 mb (28.17 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions will continue over the central Bahamas
and spread into the northwestern Bahamas today.  Winds will
gradually diminish over the southeastern Bahamas this morning.

Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane
warning area in Florida by late today and will spread northward
Thursday night and Friday.  Tropical storm conditions are first
expected in Florida by late this morning.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in
Georgia and South Carolina by late Friday, with tropical storm
conditions possible on Friday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch
area on the Florida Gulf Coast beginning later today.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...1 to 3 feet
The Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sebastian Inlet to Savannah River...5 to 8 ft
Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet...3 to 5 ft
Virginia Key to Deerfield Beach...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  There is a danger of life-
threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the Florida
east coast from Deerfield Beach to Fernandina Beach.

There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the
next 48 hours from north of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National
Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017.  The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

RAINFALL:  Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in
the following areas:

Eastern Cuba...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches
Central Cuba...3 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches
The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
Turks and Caicos Islands...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches
Coastal eastern Florida....4 to 7 inches, isolated 10 inches
Florida Keys....1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches

Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely in central
and eastern Cuba.

SURF:  Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the north coast of Cuba and the Bahamas during the next few days,
and will spread northward along the east coast of Florida and the
southeast U.S. coast tonight and Thursday and continue into the
weekend.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

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