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TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
500 AM AST WED OCT 05 2016

Nicole continues to hold its strength despite strong wind shear.
Satellite images show a rather robust circulation, with a small area
of deep convection near the center and a larger band to the east of
the center. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt, based on Dvorak
classifications from TAFB and SAB.  Nicole is expected to remain in
strong wind shear conditions caused by the outflow of Hurricane
Matthew during the next few days, which should prevent the
storm from strengthening.  Beyond that time, Nicole is expected to
interact with a mid- to upper-level low and could acquire some
subtropical cyclone characteristics this weekend.  The NHC intensity
forecast is higher than the previous one beyond 36 hours to come
into better agreement with the latest guidance, which generally
shows Nicole staying relatively steady state through the period.

The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 6 kt on the
southwest side of a subtropical ridge.  A turn to the northwest is
likely later today followed by a northward motion in 36 to 48 hours
as the cyclone moves toward a weakness in the ridge. After that
time, a slow and erratic motion is expected as Nicole interacts with
the cut off upper-level low.  The NHC track forecast closely follows
a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models, and is fairly similar to
the previous prediction.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0900Z 24.3N  61.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 25.5N  63.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  06/0600Z 26.8N  64.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  06/1800Z 27.7N  64.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  07/0600Z 28.4N  64.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  08/0600Z 28.0N  62.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  09/0600Z 28.3N  62.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  10/0600Z 30.0N  63.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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