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HURRICANE OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016
400 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2016

Satellite images indicate that Otto is continuing to strengthen.
The overall satellite pattern has become more symmetric, with a
large mass of intense convection near the center. Dvorak intensity
estimates range from 65 to 77 kt, and the wind speed is set to 65
kt, which makes Otto the seventh hurricane of the season.  Otto
is the latest hurricane formation on record in the Caribbean Sea,
eclipsing the mark of Martha (1969) by about a day.

Environmental conditions appear favorable for continued
strengthening, with warm water and weak-to-moderate southeasterly
shear during the next couple of days.  Most of the guidance models
show Otto making landfall as a category 1 hurricane on Thursday and
so does the official forecast.  Stronger shear, as well as land
interaction over central America, will probably prevent Otto from
restrengthening over the eastern Pacific.

Satellite fixes suggest that Otto has been drifting westward during
the day.  A mid-level ridge is still forecast to build over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea by tomorrow, which should cause Otto to
move slowly to the west or west-northwest.  As the ridge builds, the
forward speed should increase, especially as the cyclone moves
across the eastern Pacific and gradually loses latitude in that
basin.  The most notable change is that the guidance has come into
better agreement on the track, although there are still some
significant speed differences.  Overall, the guidance envelope has
shifted a bit to the north and is faster, and the official forecast
follows that trend.

A hurricane warning will likely be required tonight or early
tomorrow for portions of Costa Rica and Nicaragua.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z 10.5N  79.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 10.6N  80.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 10.9N  81.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  24/0600Z 11.0N  82.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  24/1800Z 11.0N  83.9W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND
 72H  25/1800Z 10.4N  88.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  26/1800Z  9.8N  91.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  27/1800Z  9.5N  96.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake/Pasch

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