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Hurricane Jose Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM AST Sun Sep 10 2017

The eye of Jose has become cloud filled and indistinct in the
visible satellite imagery and is no longer discernible in the
infrared imagery. A 1536Z GPM pass showed the eye and inner core
were degrading. Not surprisingly, current satellite intensity
estimates have trended down, with ADT carrying 5.3, CPHC and SAB
at 5.5, and TAFB at 6.0. The initial intensity has been lowered to
105 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion estimate is 315/15. Global models show that
the mid level high which has been responsible for the persistent
northwest track will gradually build southward over the next 36
hours, causing the system to slow down on Monday and begin turning
more toward the north. After 48 hours, the high will build to the
west of Jose, forcing the hurricane into a slow anticyclonic loop
between 48 and 96 hours. After 96 hours, mid-level ridging becomes
reestablished north of Jose, causing the system to resume more of a
west to west-northwest track through the end of the forecast period.
One minor adjustment is that the models suggest this loop may occur
a little slower than previously indicated, and the forecast
reflects this change which is closer to the models.

Jose is now experiencing about 20 kt of northerly shear, having
outrun the narrow zone of weaker shear it was under previously.
This shear will increase further over the next 12 to 24 hours and
additional weakening appears likely through the next few days
despite SSTs over 29C over the entire forecast track. During the
latter part of the forecast period, the shear may relax enough to
allow for some reintensification, but the confidence in this is
somewhat low.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/2100Z 22.8N  66.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  11/0600Z 24.4N  68.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  11/1800Z 26.0N  69.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  12/0600Z 26.8N  69.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  12/1800Z 26.7N  68.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  13/1800Z 25.4N  67.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  14/1800Z 24.2N  68.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  15/1800Z 25.1N  71.7W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster R Ballard

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