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BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142017
900 PM MDT Tue Aug 29 2017

...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...
...NEW WATCHES ISSUED FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 107.9W
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has extended the Hurricane Watch northward
on the west coast of Baja California Sur from Todos Santos to
Puerto Cortes and issued a Tropical Storm Watch on the east coast of
Baja California Sur from Los Barriles to San Evaristo.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Cortes to Los Barriles

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Todos Santos to Los Barriles

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* north of Los Barriles to San Evaristo

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur
should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
17.7 North, longitude 107.9 West.  The system is moving toward the
northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A slower northwest to
north-northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days.
On the forecast track, the center of the disturbance will be near
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula by late Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts.  The system is expected to strengthen to a tropical storm on
Wednesday, and it could become a hurricane by late Thursday.

The disturbance continues to become better organized, and only a
small increase in the definition of the circulation would lead to
the formation of a tropical cyclone.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by late Wednesday, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Hurricane conditions are also
possible within the watch area on Thursday.  Tropical-storm-force
wind gusts are possible in rainbands along the coast of Michoacan,
Colima and Jalisco tonight and Wednesday.

RAINFALL:  The system is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches in the Mexican states of Michoacan,
Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit, with isolated maximum totals of 20
inches possible along the immediate coast.  This rain could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by the disturbance are affecting portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico.  These swells will likely reach
the southern portions of the Baja California Sur on Wednesday, and
could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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