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TROPICAL DEPRESSION DON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052023
1500 UTC MON JUL 17 2023
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.6N 42.9W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 120 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 30SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.6N 42.9W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.9N 43.6W
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 37.7N 41.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 36.0N 39.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 34.5N 39.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 33.8N 39.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 33.4N 40.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 33.7N 42.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 35.8N 45.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 39.5N 49.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.6N 42.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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