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Hurricane Adrian Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012023
300 AM MDT Sat Jul 01 2023
Adrian's structure on both microwave and geostationary satellite has
continued to deteriorate overnight. While a small cluster of deep
convection remains, it is becoming increasingly separated to the
northwest of the low-level center which is becoming exposed on
nighttime GOES-18 shortwave-IR imagery. An earlier F-16 microwave
pass at 0020 UTC also showed this increasingly detached convection,
possibly a result of increasing easterly vertical wind shear
decoupling the vertical structure of Adrian. Subjective satellite
intensity estimates are quickly decreasing, though the CI numbers
are constrained by the Dvorak technique. The initial intensity has
been set to 70 kt for this advisory, closer to unconstrained data-T
Dvorak values from TAFB and SAB, in addition to experimental D-PRINT
and AiDT intensity estimates provided by UW-CIMSS. Adrian is now
over sub-26 C sea-surface temperatures, which cool to below 24 C in
24 hours, and steady to rapid weakening is likely to continue. The
latest intensity forecast is in line with the intensity consensus,
with both regional-hurricane and global model guidance suggesting
Adrian will become a post-tropical cyclone devoid of deep convection
by Sunday.
Adrian continues to move west-northwestward at a slightly slower
pace than before, estimated at 300/6 kt. This general
west-northwestward motion should continue, with a gradual turn
westward as Adrian becomes a shallow cyclone steered by the
low-level trade wind flow. Aside from some initial position
adjustments southward, the track forecast is quite similar to the
prior advisory, following the reliable HCCA and TVCE consensus aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/0900Z 18.1N 114.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 18.5N 114.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 19.0N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 19.4N 117.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 03/0600Z 19.6N 118.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 03/1800Z 19.6N 119.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 04/0600Z 19.5N 121.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Papin
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