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Tropical Depression Adrian Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012023
200 AM PDT Sun Jul 02 2023
Adrian's structure continues decaying. Most of the remaining deep
convection that was displaced to the northwest of the low-level
center has dissipated. In response, both subjective and objective
intensity estimates continue to decrease. In addition, an 0519 UTC
ASCAT-B pass over Adrian had a peak wind retrieval of only 30-kt.
Based primarily on the scatterometer data, Adrian is being
downgraded to a tropical depression this advisory with 30-kt winds.
Further weakening is anticipated in a dry and stable environment
with sea-surface temperatures below 24 C that cool further along the
cyclone's track. If deep convection does not return later today,
Adrian could be declared a post-tropical remnant low as soon as this
afternoon.
Adrian continues moving west-northwestward at about 300/6 kt. This
motion should continue with a gradual turn westward, following the
trade wind flow south of a low-level anticyclone. The latest NHC
track is quite similar to the prior one, and lies near the
various consensus aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0900Z 19.3N 116.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 19.7N 117.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 03/0600Z 20.1N 118.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 03/1800Z 20.2N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 04/0600Z 20.1N 121.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Papin
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